Happy New Year everyone!

I took the week off from following the news and blogging. It doesn't seem like I missed much.

It is very cold and snowy here. Not the fluffy kind of snow that makes everything look like a winter wonderland, but the wet kind that turns into slick ice as soon as it hits the road.

The Colorado State Patrol is out in force looking for impaired drivers. They posted this on their Facebook page a few minutes ago, and they think it is amusing:

New Year’s Eve Special Offer:

Troopers statewide will be giving free* rides to intoxicated drivers caught operating a vehicle. Participants can expect a stay in beautiful grey or white rooms, generally about 6×9 in dimensions, with buzzing lights. A toilet is provide just inches from a 1.5 inch mattress, for your convenience. Free photograph and fingerprints will be taken. Company in the room is almost a guarantee, as is a night contemplating poor life choices.

I am more than happy to see 2018 end. I just wish Donald Trump and his family and revolving door staff members would go with it. Barring that, I wish the media would stop its relentless coverage of him and his ignorant comments. [More...]

A very merry Christmas to all!

This is an open thread, all topics welcome -- from your family holiday traditions to cooking to politics.

Enjoy the day and your time with your families. Regardless of your religion, Christmas is a special holiday!

I'm off to buy Christmas gifts for the family. Karter already opened the one I got her -- she's sitting in it in the picture.

Please let us know how you are celebrating, and I'll be back later this evening.

A happy holiday eve to all!

The popular Indonesian rock band Seventeen was performing on a stage at the edge of Tanjung Lesung beach in West Java Saturday night when the waves came crashing down and swept them away. Three members of the band , the road manager and a crew member died. Only the lead vocalist, Riefian Fajarsyah, survived.

Also missing and now confirmed dead: Riefian's wife, 25 year old actress Dylan Sahara. He posts this message to her on Instagram.

Here is a video showing how fast it happened.

It's official. CBS reports (no link due to auto play video):

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced shortly after 3 p.m. Saturday that there is no deal, and the Senate is adjourned until Thursday, Dec. 27.

We are in a partial government shutdown mode which will last through Christmas, at least. Only "essential" workers(shorter version: some law enforcement, including border agents, and military troops at the border) will get paid, the rest of federal workers do not:

More than 420,000 federal employees would have to go to work without pay. More than 380,000 will be furloughed. Those who work will get paid eventually - and those furloughed likely will - but depending how long the shutdown lasts, they could miss a paycheck.

Trump owns this now. It is his Christmas present to America.

As Trump continues to pander to his shrinking base of under-informed and marginalized voters, Dems need to stay firm and refuse to pay a cent for his imaginary wall. As for his "beautiful" Steel Slat Barrier he tweeted about this morning, I hope he's the first to sit on top of it.

The only acceptable outcome for next year: #TrumpResigns.

Donald Trump wants his wall. He's refusing to sign the bill to avoid a government shutdown without funding for his wall.

Donald Trump is the antithesis of what this country needs in leadership.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again.

Hopefully, Trump's fall will come soon.

The Atlantic is correct: Michael Flynn's lawyers badly miscalculated when they filed their sentencing memorandum claiming the FBI's failure to warn Flynn that it was a crime to lie to the FBI during a voluntary interview was mitigation for sentencing.

Judge Emmet Sullivan, however, who was set to issue Flynn’s sentence on Monday, was not sympathetic. “How is raising these points consistent with accepting responsibility?” he asked Flynn and his lawyers as they stood before him at the lectern on Tuesday. He then lambasted Flynn for lying to federal agents on White House grounds while serving as the president’s top national-security adviser in January 2017, and for lying about his lobbying work for the Turkish government. “Arguably, you sold out your country,” Sullivan said.

He added that while he would take Flynn’s 33-year public-service career and cooperation into account when sentencing him, he would not try to hide his “disdain” and “disgust” for Flynn’s crimes, and asked the government at one point whether Flynn’s conduct rose to the level of treason.

Flynn's sentencing was continued to March. He's still cooperating (in the case of his partners working with him on behalf of Turkey to "remove" the cleric Turkey believes is responsible for the 2016 coup against President Erdogan from PA to Turkey)for prosecution who were indicted a few days ago.

The Judge may cool off by March, but his lawyers' attempt to minimize his conduct after he pleaded guilty by portraying him as a victim of the FBI was a poor strategy.

Maria Butina has pleaded guilty to a conspiracy charge and is cooperating with the Government. The plea agreement is here.

The Statement of Facts she agreed to are attached to the end of the plea agreement.

It's unlikely she'll get any more time when sentenced. While there is no guideline applicable to her offense, she'll likely be in the 0 to 6 month range, and she's been in detention for months. She also agreed today to remain in detention until sentencing.

I wonder what reception she'll get if she goes back to Russia, since they will know she disclosed information about Russia to the U.S. Right now the plea agreement does not provide for relief from removal from the U.S. Of course, if the Government decides later she is fulfilling her cooperation obligation, it can request she be granted an S-Visa ("snitch visa"). (Here is the ICE page for Form I-854, officially called the Inter-Agency Alien Witness and Informant Record.)It's like a green card for informants.

More the various players in the case is here.

Donald Trump today denied telling Michael Cohen to break the law.

“I never directed Michael Cohen to break the law,” he said. “He was a lawyer and he is supposed to know the law. It is called ‘advice of counsel,’ and a lawyer has great liability if a mistake is made. That is why they get paid.”

"Advice of counsel" as a defense is rarely successful. By asserting it, a defendant may end up waiving his attorney-client privilege. The D.C. District Court held in the Manafort case:

"Communications otherwise protected by the attorney-client privilege are not protected if the communications are made in furtherance of a crime, fraud, or other misconduct." [More...]

The Government asked for four years. The Judge sentenced Cohen to three years. Michael Cohen said he accepted full blame because "time and time again I felt it was my duty to cover up his [Trump's]dirty deeds."

This sentence covers not only his campaign finance violations, but his tax evasion, lying to Congress and bank fraud. (The sentence for lying to Congress (about the Trump Org. Moscow project which never came to fruition) was two months, but it was ordered to run concurrently (at the same time) as the financial/fraud crimes.)

He also has to forfeit $500,000. and pay $1.39 million in restitution and a $50,000. fine.

He has until March to surrender to the designated federal facility. The Judge agreed to recommend the camp at Otisville, which is the place most white collar Jewish defendants want to go.

Lanny Davis will now change roles to become Cohen's media spokesman. In that role today, he said Cohen will cooperate with Congressional inquiries about Trump.

It seems obvious to me that what Cohen refuses to talk about is matters involving his family, particularly his in-laws. [More...]

Update: I just moved this post back a day since the Manafort hearing was Tuesday, Dec. 11, not Dec. 12 as I originally posted. His appearance was waived. Here's the court's minutes:

Minute Entry for proceedings held before Judge Amy Berman Jackson: Scheduling Conference as to PAUL J. MANAFORT, JR. (1) held on 12/11/2018. Defendant's Submission re: alleged breach matter is due by 1/7/2019. Government submission, if any, is due by 1/14/2019; Defendant's Reply, if any, is due by 1/18/2019. A Hearing, if needed, is set for 1/25/2019 at 9:30 AM in Courtroom 3 before Judge Amy Berman Jackson. Bond Status of Defendant: Defendant's presence was waived, but he remains committed; Court Reporter: Janice Dickman; Defense Attorneys: Kevin M. Downing, Thomas Edward Zehnle and Richard William Westling; US Attorneys: Andrew Weissmann and Greg Donald Andres. (jth) (Entered: 12/11/2018)

Paul Manafort may not be contesting Mueller's charge that he broke his cooperation deal by lying.

If that's true, anyone want to give odds on his chances for a commutation of his sentence to time served right after he's sentenced?

The US Attorney's office for the SDNY berates Michael Cohen for his "selective cooperation" in its latest sentencing memo. It then repeatedly asks for a "substantial sentence"

Except, don't miss the part where it says it concurs with the Probation Department that his guideline range is 51 to 63 months. It also says probation is recommending a downward variance to 42 months. It then agrees he should receive some sort of downward variance for his cooperation:

And while the Office agrees that Cohen should receive credit for his assistance in the SCO investigation, that credit should not approximate the credit a traditional cooperating witness would receive, given, among other reasons, Cohen’s affirmative decision not to become one. For these reasons, the Office respectfully requests that this Court impose a substantial term of imprisonment, one that reflects a modest downward variance from the applicable Guidelines range (my emphasis).