The most recent of the generic polls, the one furthest from John Kerry, predicts a huge Dem tidal wave:

The percentage of likely voters who plan to vote for Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections increased in the past week, and those voters supporting Democrats also seem less likely to change their minds before casting ballots, according to a CNN poll conducted over the weekend. Democrats hold a 58 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning, compared to the 53 percent to 42 percent advantage reflected in the poll a week ago.

And Bush's approval ratings suffered due to his high visibility:

President Bush's popularity took another dip over the past week, and four out of 10 likely voters said their disapproval of the job he is doing will impact how they cast their congressional ballots on Tuesday, according to a new CNN poll. Bush's approval rating fell to 35 percent, with 61 percent of those polled saying they disapproved of the way he is handling his job as president, in the survey conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This represents a two point decline in Bush's approval rating compared to the CNN poll conducted a week earlier and it is four points lower than the survey taken two weeks ago.

Sending Bush out may have energized the GOP base, but it seems to have deepened the anger of Dems and Independents as well. A two-edged sword for the Republicans.

At Daily Kos, DemfromCt provides good analysis on the latest polling:

Andy Kohut of The Pew Research Center was interviewed on NPR about the recent Pew Poll. He noted that while the voter sentiment hasn't changed, what has changed is Republicans are more energized than they were. The poll was adjusted to reflect that, and there we have the explanation for the poll tightening. Subgroups who have a Dem lead (but not as much as before) include women and independents. The slew of polls we covered yesterday looked at those subgroups as well.

. . . It's not that all of a sudden Bush and Iraq became popular on Friday. What happened over the weekend is interviews suggested that as unhappy as Republican voters are, they'll hold their nose and vote for the GOP. To that extent, the GOP "play to the base" campaign worked as designed.

The importance of likely voter models therefore should be appreciated. Gallup's been doing theirs for a long time, yet in a wave election, the sentiment for change can be underestimated (by definition, the LV model isn't based on changing from the past). Frank Newport thinks it looks like 1994, and the difference is strong enough to take the House.

The dynamics of the race have not changed but the GOP has successfully energized its base. Who turns out will determine the size of the wave on Tuesday.

As always, the Republican Party lives down to expectations:

It turns out that some of the political phone messages Granite Staters are receiving as Election Day nears may be illegal. The issue revolves around the national Do Not Call registry.

A homeowner in Hillsboro received the same message several times in one day. It began by stating it had information about Paul Hodes, the Democratic challenger for the 2nd Congressional District.

After a few seconds, the ad turns on the attack. It isn't until the end that you find out it was sponsored by the Republican National Congressional Committee.

These dirty tricks, which are illegal, are being employed in 53 races by the GOP.

Has there been a slimier political party than today's Republicans?

Via Georgia10 at Daily Kos:

Take a minute and remind everyone in your address book to vote this Tuesday. American Greetings has free election day e-cards you can send to all your friends and family.

When President Bush campaigned yesterday in Greeley, Colorado for the mother of the anti-gay marriage amendment, here's the billboard that greeted him:

[Via ProgressAction Now.]

Monday, the day before Election Day, the White House is trotting out Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and HSA chief Michael Chertoff to announce a new get tough on crime measure:

Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales will participate in a press conference with Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, European Union Vice President Franco Frattini, Finland's Minister of Justice Leena Luhtanen, and Finland's Minister of Interior Kari Rajamaki regarding the signing of an agreement by the United States and the European Union to improve joint efforts to fight transnational crime on MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2006 at 1:30 P.M. EST.

I guess they figure they're losing their battle to be the party that will make us safer in the war on terror, but they can still be the tough on crime party anxious to increase the prison population.

Kos remembers a few "truths" we were told abouts Dems right after the 2004 election:

Remember how electing Howard Dean chair of the Democratic Party would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? Remember how the netroots would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? Remember how calling for an Iraq pullout would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? In a couple of days, we'll find out if those claims turned out to be true.

I remember a few others "truths" we were told--

How Dems had to have a "positive" agenda, a "plan" for Iraq, reach out to "values voters," abandon choice, listen to Rahm Emanuel about trying to eke out 16 seat in the House, "get serious" about national security (i.e. - adopt Joe Lieberman's views), and so on.

All nonsense.

Assume, for the sake of argument, that the Democrats take the House on Tuesday. The new Congress is sworn in in early January.

Assume further that the House, finally exercising checks and balances, votes to impeach President Bush and Vice President Cheney. Assume further that the Senate actually convicts, a really big assumption, considering that a vote along party lines would not reach the required number of 67 (U.S. Const., Art. I, § 3, cl. 6).

If both the President and Vice President were convicted on an Article of Impeachment, the Speaker of the House would assume the Presidency.  Then, the new President would name a Vice President to be confirmed by the House under the Twenty-fifth Amendment.

Today's editorial in the New York Times explains why the paper is not endorsing a single Republican for the House of Representatives this year. It's a damning and well-deserved indictment of Bush and Republican congresspersons.

First, the premise:

Although Times editorials tend to agree with Democrats on national policy, we have proudly and consistently endorsed a long line of moderate Republicans, particularly for the House. Our only political loyalty is to making the two-party system as vital and responsible as possible.

Now, the indictment:

Rep. John Dingell's investigation agenda as chair of the Commerce Committee if Democrats take the House:

Among the areas Dingell says he will investigate: "Privacy. Social Security number protection. Outsourcing protection. Unfair trade practices. Currency manipulation. Air quality.

"We'll look at the implementation of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We'll take a look at climate change. We'll take a look at the nuclear waste programme, where literally billions of dollars are being dissipated. We'll look at port security and nuclear smuggling, where there's literally nothing being done. On health, we'll take a look at Medicaid. The Food and Drug Administration. Generic drug approval. Medical safety. We'll also take a look at food supplements, where people are being killed. We will look at the overall question of Katrina recovery efforts."

In a word: oversight.

The New York Times says only two senate races remain a tossup: Missouri and Virginia.

The map is now on a razor’s edge with 49 seats leaning or safe for both the Democrats and for the Republicans.

The Democrats have a tougher battle because they need to reach 51 seats to take control as Vice President Dick Cheney will break a 50-50 tie.

Query: If Joe Lieberman wins, what column does it fall in since he's not running as a Democrat or a Republican? The Republicans will try to woo him into changing parties. I think he'll continue to call himself a Democrat while supporting Republican platforms.

Say hello to My Polling Site.

Our database of online poll locators has been slowly growing. We now can get 72% of the US population the exact location of their polling site in 4 clicks or less. For the other 28% we provide a local phone number where they can call to get the information they need. This service is free to the public,