This nonsense bothers me because in fact if you believe Mason Dixon, as NBC is pretending to do, Obama is actually gaining momentum. The race is not tightening according to Mason Dixon. The Obama lead is growing. A few more examples. In Colorado, Mason Dixon's 10/28-9 Colorado poll gives Obama a 5 point lead, 49-44. In its previous 9/29-10/1 Colorado poll, Mason Dixon had the race tied, 44-44. In Missouri, Mason Dixon has the race unchanged from its poll last week, a poll NBC commissioned, McCain by 1. In Ohio, Mason Dixon had McCain leading by 1 last week and now has McCain by 2.

This is not a knock on Mason Dixon - clearly they have seen the race closer than every other pollster all year. Whether that is right or wrong is another issue, but what is clear is that across the board Mason Dixon is showing movement towards OBAMA, not McCain. The Media incompetence on polling remains stunning, though not surprising.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Quick message to Joe Scarborough of MSNBC - who is screaming about "tightening" in the state polls - when Obama increases his lead in the Mason Dixon polls - that does not signal tightening.

For example, Scarborough keeps talking about "tightening" in Nevada, based on a 10/28-9 Mason-Dixon poll showing Obama up 4, 47-43. For Joe's information, last month's M-D 10/8-9 Nevada poll had Obama leading in Nevada by just 2, 47-45. Similarly in Virginia, Joe is screaming about tightening based on a 10/29-30 M-D poll showing Obama by 3, 47-44. The problem for Joe is M-D's 10/20-21 VA poll, for NBC no less, had Obama up 2, 47-45. What about Pennsylvania? Is it tightening according to Mason Dixon - MSNBC's preferred pollster? No. In M-D's September 16-18 PA poll, Obama only led by 2, 46-44. In M-D's 10/27-8 PA poll, Obama leads by 4, 47-43. How about Florida? Is it tightening? MSNBC is touting the M-D FL 10/29-30 poll that has Obama by 2, 47-45. A week before, for NBC (did you miss that poll Joe?) Mason Dixon had McCain ahead in Florida by 1, 46-45. Tightening? Uh, no.

Bottom line, there is no tightening and you should not pay attention to the Scarboroughs of the world. He really knows nothing about polling.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Both in 2000 and 2004, the popular vote loser won or came close to winning the Presidency. In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote and then the Supreme Court stole Florida on his behalf (to be fair, the Republican House of Representatives would have stolen it for him as well.) In 2004, John Kerry would have won the Presidency with a 120,000 vote shift in Ohio despite losing the popular vote by 2.5% (over 3 million votes.) So could it happen this year? In a word, no.

Barring a miracle, Barack Obama will win the popular vote on Tuesday. So how could John McCain win the Presidency without winning the popular vote? Winning squeakers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana? He still loses the Presidency even if he does all that. Here's the thing - McCain will have to win in Pennsylvania or Colorado and Nevada as well to win the Presidency. And if McCain wins in all those states, he will win the popular vote.

The polls show Obama winning by between 5 and 13 points. While it is true that the Presidential Election is 50 different elections it is also true that if he wins the aggregate election, John McCain will win the popular vote.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The UK's Times Online ranks the greatest American presidents. Abraham Lincoln is first on the list. A worthy choice, although my personal favorite, Thomas Jefferson, is ranked a disappointing fourth.

In last place: James Buchanan. The Times Online ranks the current Bush in 37th place, tied with Nixon. Harrison, Van Buren, and Pierce round out the bottom.

Remember this Saturday Night Live skit, showing John McCain slinking away from a George Bush endorsement? One of the few politicians with a lower approval rating than Bush has emerged from his bunker to stump for McCain.

“Earlier today, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote, ‘delighted to support John McCain,’” Obama said at an outdoor rally in this Colorado town where he was accompanied by his wife and two young daughters.

“I’d like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it. That endorsement didn’t come easy. Sen. McCain had to vote 90% of the time with George Bush and Dick Cheney to get his support.”

Cheney gave his speech in Wyoming, perhaps the only state that still welcomes his presence. But why let Cheney see daylight? Surely the McCain campaign isn't worried that Wyoming will turn blue.

Why John McCain would want an inarticulate, corrupt boob like John Boehner to campaign on his behalf is difficult to understand -- except that inarticulate, corrupt boobs (and a few Hollywood celebrities like Arnold Schwarzenegger) are all he has left.

Appropriately enough, Boehner was campaigning for McCain in a bar. He's at his best when he's had a few drinks. At the Brick Street Bar and Grill in Oxford, Florida, Boehner criticized Barack Obama for voting "present" 3 percent of the time he voted in the Illinois legislature:

"Now, listen, I've voted 'present' two or three times in my entire 25-year political career, where there might have been a conflict of interest and I didn't feel like I should vote," Boehner said. "In Congress, we have a red button, a green button and a yellow button, alright. Green means 'yes,' red means 'no,' and yellow means you're a chicken sh!t. And the last thing we need in the White House, in the oval office, behind that big desk, is some chicken who wants to push this yellow button."

Is there really a yellow button in the White House, Senator Boehner? [more ...]

John McCain must now defy history. No candidate trailing in the Gallup poll at the end of October has ever won the Presidency since Gallup commenced polling (note - in the Truman-Dewey race, Gallup did not poll till the end of October.) Today Gallup has Obama leading by 10, 52-42 in both likely voter measures, the traditional and the expanded models.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

In Colorado, the Colorado Criminal Justice Reform Coalition (CCJRC) has been helping inmates who are eligible to vote. The Aspen Daily News reports:

In Colorado you are barred from voting only from the day you are convicted of a felony offense until you complete your prison time and any parole sentence.

So you can vote if you are in jail on a misdemeanor conviction, free on bail for any crime, if you are a pre-trial jail detainee, or have completed your sentence and parole. Colorado felons are allowed to vote while on probation.

Colorado is considered "moderate" when it comes to inmate voting. Among other states, [More...]

DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 51-44. The last two nights of polling have been +8 and +9. I predict that come Tuesday morning, this poll will predict a 9 point Obama win. Ras ticks one point in Obama's direction to a 5 point lead, 51-46. Ras seems headed to predicting a 5 point Obama win come Tuesday. No tracker has McCain closer than 4 (IBD/TIPP has Obama by 4.4, Battleground has Obama by 4) Most have the race closer to 9 ( See Gallup, WaPo and Hotline.)

Here is our fun with Zogby moment of the day - today Zogby's poll show McCain doing better with women (where he trails by 4) than men (where he trails by 6.) Zogby is truly a joke. Even when he is angling for publicity as he is today, he can't tell a plausible story.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Earlier today I wrote about the latest Colorado poll showing Obama still with a big lead over John McCain. A reader asked me if I'm ready to call Colorado for Obama yet.

I thought I was, but now I'm having second thoughts. He was just in Denver and Fort Collins last week, so why are he and Michelle coming back to Colorado tomorrow to do a rally in Pueblo? Pueblo is a Democratic county. Maybe it's just that early voting turnout in Pueblo has not been as high as other places. As of today:[More...]

The other day I did a post on the political demography of Ohio and why Obama's performance among non-whites is why he will win there. WaPo's Numbers Blog reaches a similar conclusion using their own polling numbers and relinks to their Ohio analysis from a few months back. Today they write:

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

. . . A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. . .

Obama leads by 9, 53-44, in the WaPo/ABC tracker.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only